I'll help you calculate your actual tech layoff risk
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Should you be worried about layoffs? Take the test.
You keep refreshing Blind. You even look at it before bed. Because you’re just trying to know: will I get laid off and what will happen to me?
When I was in tech, I easily spent a thousand hours worrying whether I would be affected. My layoff rate was 7:1. Survived seven. Impacted by 1.
So I built a tool to help with this very issue: the tech layoff probability score. I made this after watching some clients get blindsided by layoffs. The signs were there. They just didn’t know which ones mattered most.
What this calculator tells you
We’re pattern matching, not fortune telling.
I’ve compiled 12 factors that typically come before layoffs at tech companies. I assigned weights to these factors to adjust for the degree of risk. Some things that seem scary like stock price drops or executive departures are less predictive than you may think, while other things that seem minor (like your projects getting deprioritized or a hiring freeze) are red flags.
Where will your score fall?
0-20%: you’re probably fine. Keep track of your work results and start networking when able, but don’t lose sleep.
21-40%: it may be time to update the resume and start taking informational calls. It may not be urgent, but reserve some time each month for this.
41-60%: if you’re not actively job searching, you may be gambling. Start now while you have time to be selective. And build up your emergency savings to at least 3 months.
61-80%: treat this like you have 90 days. Full search mode. Talk to recruiters. Activate every relevant contact. Increase emergency savings to at least 6 months.
81-100%: assume it’s coming. You may want to disengage from work to focus on your search. Or take PTO. Reduce spending and add any remaining cash to your savings.
What to do with your score
If you scored 40% or higher and you’re thinking “well, maybe I’m the exception” - you’re not. That’s the golden handcuffs talking.
Here’s what that voice costs you:
3-6 months of unemployment because you waited
Accepting a lateral move instead of a step up because you’re desperate
Burning through savings while you figure out what’s next
Missing the window when your network could have helped you land somewhere better
The women I work with who navigate layoffs well have one thing in common: they trusted the data over wishful thinking.
So, here is the link to the tech layoff probability calculator.
If you scored 40% or higher, book a Results Review with me. We’ll dig into your score and identify 1-3 concrete action items you can start implementing that day. Whether that’s accelerating your search, building a severance negotiation strategy, or doing some personal branding exercises.
This is the calculator I wish I’d had before my Tesla layoff in 2018. It would have saved me six months of anxiety and a fire sale job search.
Don’t wait for the “quick call” meeting notice to land on your calendar.
Rooting for you,
Rachel
P.S. please share this with an MBA woman in tech who’s been feeling like something’s off at work lately. The calculator takes 2 minutes and might be the wake-up call she’s been avoiding.